QuERI - Global Forecasts

The QuERI Model

A proprietary I/O analysis and forecasting model integrating data from a multiplicity of sources.

QuERI integrates government collected data from multiple sources:

  • Manufactures gross output from UNIDO Supply-Demand Balance database and national sources;
  • Non-manufactures and Services gross output and value-added from UN Standard National Accounts;
  • Personal Consumption Spending Groups and Government Spending Groups from UN Standard National Accounts
  • Macroeconomic baseline estimates for GDP, Personal Consumption, Business Investment, Government Consumption, Domestic Prices, Exchange Rate, Exports and Imports from the Economist Intelligence Unit.
  • Employment data from UNIDO and ILO, as well as national sources.
  • International trade data (detailed and bilateral) from UN Comtrade data.
  • Miscellaneous indicators from World Bank WDI data.

Pooled-cross-sectional-time-series models are used to develop equations for:

  • Private Consumption Spending Categories
  • Government Expenditure Categories
  • Production (64 ISIC 2 industries)
  • Exports to World
  • Imports from World
  • Commodity Prices

Input-Output models are used to integrate production, private consumption, government spending, and business investment to produce:

  • Intermediate Demand by Commodity
  • Market Demand from Consumer Spending, Investment Spending, and Government Spending by Commodity

Forecasts for production are derived using a combination of econometric models linking output growth to market demand from domestic sources and positively by foreign demand (exports) and negatively by import substitutes.

Domestic demand is a combination of purchases by other industries in the country (using IO model linkages) and final demand of consumers, investors, and government.

International trade is integrated using a global market sharing methodology that allows countries with faster growing exports to capture a larger share of global markets.

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